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Job description
Role Overview
Contribute expert-authored election forecasting and political-risk research that helps evaluate and improve AI models performing real political and financial analysis. You will assess races from a defined point in time, producing the judgment a strong local analyst could reasonably have made using only evidence available at that cutoff.
Key Responsibilities
Write point-in-time political reports and forecasts using a stated evidence cutoff.
Make and document directional assessments of polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
Explain the causal mechanisms through which events may affect politics and markets.
Review AI-generated analyses and evaluate them against your own expert standard.
Qualifications
Hands-on experience with specific swing-state races, including current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent election cycles in the same state.
Deep local knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and political environment.
Experience in roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff member, or state political-risk analyst.
A demonstrated record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds, rather than only retrospective commentary.
Strong polling literacy and ability to analyze causal political events.
Typically 8 or more years of direct experience, or compelling evidence of equivalent performance.
Relevant backgrounds may include political science departments and survey research centers at universities in target states, state and regional polling organizations, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-rating outlets with state-specific coverage.
National forecasting or political-risk experience is relevant when paired with deep knowledge of a particular state. Well-known organizations may be a positive initial signal, but qualification depends on direct experience and performance in the work sample.
Role Fit
This role is not suited to candidates focused primarily on international politics, geopolitics, or country risk without meaningful work on US races.
Candidates should have worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover.
Communications or journalism experience alone is insufficient without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
Purely theoretical academic work without analysis of live races is not sufficient.
Work Terms
Remote, hourly engagement.
Compensation
$100 to $200 per hour.
Eligibility
All work must follow the stated evidence cutoff. Analyses may not use hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Who can apply
Review the original listing for work authorization, qualifications and employer requirements.